What's going on with global energy prices?
This is a tumultuous time in energy: a once-in-a-generation crisis driven by fossil fuels, made even worse by Russia, the world's largest gas exporter, invading Ukraine.
We're committed to fair prices that truly reflect the cost of the energy we supply you. In this blog, we'll give insight into what's going on in the global wholesale energy market, to help you better understand trends in UK tariff prices.
October 2022: “Wholesale prices look like they’re dropping again, why aren’t energy tariffs coming down?”
Recent market fluctuations have been drawing a fair bit of attention, but wholesale energy prices remain much higher than this time last year, with high prices projected into the next year.
So, you may have seen graphs like this one on social media recently, and they’ve prompted a lot of valid questions. Namely: why do these sources say gas prices are 📉 when my prices are 📈 ?
When it comes to this popular graph, it’s worth bearing in mind that TTF is Dutch gas, so it isn’t the most relevant source. But even so, when ‘day ahead’ energy prices do suddenly drop like this, there are a number of reasons it won’t have an immediate impact on the price people pay for energy.
First, we have to buy the energy our customers use in advance, via longer term contracts. If you’re on a fixed tariff, we've bought all your energy for the year already at the best price we could secure at the time you signed up. If you’re on a variable tariff, we'll still have bought the energy you’re using now in advance (though not a full years’ worth). In both these cases, there’s a different price when compared to buying gas in the very short term, on the ‘day ahead’ market, because long term contracts have to factor future risk.
In the short term prices have dropped, it’s true. Autumn has been unexpectedly warm, and Europe has been able to fill its Liquid National Gas storage faster than expected, meaning gas is temporarily pretty easy to get hold of. However, in the upcoming winter months - with Russian pipelines cut off and Asian competition for LNG shipments predicted - gas is projected to become scarcer, and therefore much more expensive again.
Finally, it’s also worth remembering that there’s an energy price cap in place - set according to wholesale energy prices - with a further discount currently provided by the Energy Price Guarantee (you can read more about how these work in our dedicated blog). Even though gas prices have temporarily dropped, they’ve fallen from levels that were way above what we’ve been charging customers. In other words, these prices will have to fall much further before they start feeding into a lower price cap next spring.
In the meantime, the Energy Price Guarantee will continue to protect customers, and we’ve got our £15 million Octo assist fund in place, alongside a bunch of other resources, to help provide further assistance to those who need it.
August 2022: A look at the price of gas for Winter 2022
Why are wholesale prices so important? The wholesale market is where suppliers buy energy for customers. Our cost to buy energy makes up around 50% of every customer’s bill which means when the markets change, our tariffs need to adjust as well.
The price most energy generators sell their power for is tied to the market price, not just the amount it costs them to generate – which means that even the price of green power is impacted by rising gas prices.
June 2022: “I’ve heard wholesale gas prices have dropped a lot. Why aren’t energy tariffs coming down?”
This question's been flying around for a few weeks, so we wanted to explain. For a super quick read, our CEO Greg tweeted a mini-thread a little while ago:
That’s a remarkably misleading figure. The peak was around 4x higher than the price you’re paying - it didn’t get passed on because companies buy in advance. Similarly there are temporary dips when ships turn up because the weather— Greg Jackson (@g__j) May 24, 2022
The gas price that’s dropped significantly is the day-ahead price. It’s the price to buy gas in really short contracts. Suppliers don’t really buy energy that way, because of how volatile the market is day to day. We need to be able to offer stable, fixed prices to customers to protect them from these short term spikes, so we buy our energy in long term contracts. We'll buy a years' supply in advance for a customer so we supply it to them for a fixed price over the 12 months, sheltered from short term fluctuations in the market.
While day to day gas prices have dipped short term, the price to buy a long term contract hasn't come down the same way.
Why hasn’t the long term gas price dropped?
Long term contracts have to factor in future risks. Storage is low across Europe, plus, Russia, one of the world’s major gas exporters, is still at war with Ukraine, meaning low supplies and shortages of gas are expected this Winter. These major risks are still factored into the price of long term contracts now – and sadly, all the gas the UK has right now doesn’t help much because we can’t store it up to use when we need it.
Why has the short term gas price dropped so much?
The UK has a glut of gas at the moment. This is making current gas prices in the UK really cheap. The trouble is, we don't have the capacity to store the gas up to use when we really need it later this year in Winter. Instead, we’re exporting some gas to Europe (though this is constrained by a lack of pipelines and the fact that a lot of the gas we have is liquid, and Europe don't have a lot of facilities to 'regassify' it) and burning all extra gas we have to generate power right now. But without storage, our longer term issue of low gas supply in Winter still remains.
Sky News gets into this detail much more in their article “The surreal, but also real, problem of Britain's gas glut”, and the BBC’s More or Less also featured a great segment explaining this around five minutes in.
Will Octopus Energy be offering any new fixed tariffs?
Our costs to buy power are still really high, so tariffs still reflect that. We’re continually reassessing our rates based on the market. Whatever we do, we’ll do it in a way that means we can keep looking after everyone through the crisis, keep operating brilliantly for our customers and team, and offer competitive, fair tariffs. We're proud that our tech and operating model mean we're an extremely lean, efficient business, which meant we could afford swallow £150 million of higher energy costs in the crisis to avoid passing it onto customer bills.
We’re still offering the cheapest variable tariff of any major supplier in the UK, £50 under the price cap. And we’re as relentlessly focused on driving down costs to bring fair prices for our customers long term as ever. In fact, customers who took a fixed price with us when we started in 2016 and stuck on our variable tariff ever since would’ve typically saved over £1,000 by now, vs if they’d done the same with a Big 6 supplier.
March 2022: With war escalating in Ukraine, energy prices are five times higher than last year.
Alongside unthinkable human tragedy, Russia’s invasion has sent shockwaves through the global energy market. When we last blogged about the energy crisis six months ago, energy prices were three times normal levels. Since the conflict began, prices have increased again: they're now more like five times last year’s prices.
As I write this on Monday 7th March, gas prices have temporarily spiked to another all-time high – meaning energy costs us 10-12x more today than it would’ve a year ago.
Things are incredibly volatile right now, with market prices changing substantially overnight.
Why has a Russia-Ukraine war made gas prices more expensive?
Russia is the world’s largest gas exporter, so major geopolitical changes throw the future a major portion of global gas supply into uncertainty. As things unfold, the gas market is moving in response to perceived risks of the war.
Russia could end up constraining or turning off its gas, which would mean remaining gas would become a much rarer, pricier commodity. Other countries could also decide to stop buying gas from Russia, which would also push prices higher as they’d all need to source gas elsewhere – putting a massively higher demand on a much smaller supply.
Europe is also buying up loads of gas right now to ensure it is well stocked for next Winter to reduce future reliance on Russia. Finally, Nord Stream 2, a new pipeline from Russia that would’ve increased supply significantly, now seems likely to be cancelled.
Why does that make such a difference to UK gas prices?
The UK typically only gets around 3% of its gas from Russia. The majority of the UK’s gas imports come from the North Sea, and a bit from a few different places like USA and Qatar. But gas is sold on a global market, so it always has a ‘going rate’, no matter where it’s bought. Around 40% of Europe’s gas is Russian, so the going rate for gas is much higher now for all the reasons in the answer above.
Does Octopus Energy buy any gas from Russia?
We don't buy from any Russian companies: in fact, we buy all our gas from British companies. Energy suppliers buy gas when it's already entered the UK, so it will've been sourced from a mix of places and we don't have control over the specific origins. But generally, around 3% of the UK's gas comes from Russia, so if there's any in our mix it's a tiny fraction.
What does this mean for Octopus Energy’s prices?
We’ve been able to buy power for our variable tariff customers already, before the worst impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and we’ll swallow another £50 million worth of higher energy costs over the next 6 months to guarantee the cheapest variable tariff from a major supplier at £1921.
For the majority of households, a Price Cap protected tariff will offer much lower rates for the next few months. Anyone who really needs to switch to us now can always do so, but we’re asking that you give us a ring to talk it through first to make sure we can really offer you better value.
And of course, if you've already fixed your prices, your rates and charges won't be affected until your contract ends.
Day to day, energy prices are really volatile, and we’re having to change our tariff offerings much more often than usual. If you’re renewing your contract and get a quote for a new fixed tariff one day, it might not be available the day after.
Our energy trading team have their eyes glued to the market, looking for prudent opportunities to secure power as cheaply as possible to keep your bills lower.
Our price promise to you
We're committed to fair tariffs, where your prices reflect the cost of energy, with a small margin on top for us to cover our business costs. When there's sustained changes in the wholesale cost of energy, we do have to adjust accordingly, but we've consistently cut into our margins so we can increase prices as little, and as late as we possibly can.
During the energy crisis, we've foregone profit and spent £100 million so far to keep your bills as low as possible. We'll spend a further £50 million over the next 6 months to offer the cheapest variable tariff of any major supplier, £48 below the Price Cap. If you're a customer and you'd like to find out more, read about Flexible Octopus and get in touch with us.
And when we can, we'll bring prices down. We pass savings onto customers whenever possible – at the beginning of 2020, when wholesale costs dropped, we were the first supplier to cut prices. We’ll continue to watch what’s going on in wholesale and bring you the very fairest prices we can, forever.
Are you struggling to pay your bills?
We’re doubling our Octopus Assist fund to £5m to help more households. If you're an Octopus customer struggling to pay your bills, please let us know through our Financial Support tool – we'll help wherever we can.
The background to the energy crisis: first published September 2021
In February 2021, Ofgem announced an increase to their energy price cap to adjust for wholesale prices rising. At that point, prices were 33% higher than they were 6 months before. Since then, prices have kept rising dramatically, driven by a range of factors:
- Our global dependence on expensive, polluting gas. Despite an ever growing share of the UK's power coming from renewables, we're still far too reliant on gas (most of it imported) to heat our homes and generate electricity, especially when we need power at short notice – 39% of Great Britain's power still comes from burning gas. With that in mind, an imperfect storm has gathered, pushing Global gas prices to a 13 year high. Strong post-Covid industrial demand across China has raised prices in Asia, so Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) cargoes are currently choosing Asian gas hubs over European ones, raising prices here.
- What's more, droughts in China and Brazil have also led to lower hydropower generation, meaning there's more competition for gas, raising further. In a dark irony, the very real effects of climate change is driving international demand for fossil fuels, and we're literally feeling the cost.
- Supply from Russia is significantly lower than usual as well, leaving gas storage across Europe only 55-60% full - 33% lower than the 5 year average at this time of year. Now, in March 2022 it's next to empty
- This, combined with significant gas and nuclear outages in the UK, and too few UK wind turbines to generate power from low wind levels have led to more gas, and even coal, being used for power production – pushing already rising wholesale gas and electricity costs to record levels.
This is yet another reason why we're pushing so hard for a renewable revolution. As we generate more electricity from renewable sources like the wind and the sun (and move to electrify heating) the UK will become less exposed to changes in gas prices. For the time being, however, when gas is expensive, energy will be too.
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