Should I fix my energy tariff? What the July price cap announcement means for you
What's changing? The typical dual-fuel energy bill will rise by £221/year on July 1st (that's about £18 a month).
Gas price rises make up the lion's share, rising by about £180. Electricity bills will go up about £40.
Will my prices go up? Flexible and variable rates will increase; fixed tariffs will remain locked.
Should I fix now? You can lock in a rate below the July cap or wait it out over summer — read on to weigh up the pros and cons.
Ofgem has announced the new energy price cap for July 1st to September 30th. It will climb by 13.5% (pushing a typical medium-sized home’s bill for gas and electricity up £221 to £1,862).
Why are energy prices going up again?
When the cap dropped in April, it felt like we might finally be seeing some lasting relief. So why the U-turn for July?
The short answer is wholesale costs — the price energy suppliers pay to buy gas and electricity on global markets.
Recently, escalating tensions and ongoing conflict in the Middle East have caused those global markets to spike. Because producers had to rapidly adjust to new risks around Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) supplies, the wholesale cost of gas has rocketed and this has fed through to the price cap calculations. Most of the £221 price cap rise comes from gas, which will go up about £180. Electricity bills will rise roughly £40.
It’s frustrating — and it’s exactly why Octopus is pushing so hard to build a homegrown, renewable, electrified energy system that isn’t at the mercy of global crises.
How do I know if my bill will rise?
Should I fix my tariff? What are my options?
Sticking with a flexible tariff
If you decide to stay on your existing tariff, we’ll email you in the next few weeks to map out exactly what your new rates will look like. Some things to consider:
Always below the cap: Octopus lobbied for the introduction of the price cap in the first place to stop big suppliers from profiteering. We have kept our Flexible prices below Ofgem’s cap every single day since it started.
The “wait and see” approach: Nobody has a crystal ball. What happens to the cap on October 1st depends entirely on global energy markets and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. If you're comfortable staying flexible, you could see how the land lies later in the summer.
The summer effect This cap only runs through July, August, and September. These are the exact months when we tend to use around 50% less energy than we do in the depths of winter. Because summer usage is naturally so low, there’s a chance you may not feel the impact of the higher rates on your day-to-day bills, giving you a window to wait it out if you're on the fence.
Locking in a fixed tariff
If you hate uncertainty and prefer knowing exactly where you stand, fixing locks your rates in for the next 12 months.
The maths right now: Our current fixed tariff (as of 26 May 2026, but we do often tweak it) is sitting at £1,780. That is higher than our Flexible price today, but cheaper than the July cap. If you fix today, you’ll pay slightly more for your energy through June, but you'll likely save money once July 1st rolls around.
Just so you know: We’re not big fans of exit fees, but we do need to run our business prudently. If you take out a year-long fixed tariff with us, we buy a year's energy for you upfront at that price. If you decide to switch away from that tariff, we still have to cover the cost of the energy we bought for you. At the moment, given the volatile markets, we have an exit fee of £50 per fuel.
What does Martin Lewis say about energy tariffs?
If you caught Martin Lewis on TV last week, you might have heard him mention our Agile Octopus and Octopus Tracker tariffs. These are smart tariffs that pass wholesale prices directly on to you. They require a bit of monitoring, but if you can shift your usage away from peak times, the savings can be well worth it.
Similarly, if you've got green tech at home — like solar panels, home batteries, a heat pump or an EV — make sure you're on one of our dedicated tariffs to get the absolute maximum value out of your setup.
Whichever tariff you choose, you'll always get competitively priced energy, zero profiteering, and our outrageously good customer care (we’ve been a Which? Recommended Provider for 9 years running).
Struggling to pay? We've got your back
We know that even as we go into the summer months, energy bills can be a big source of anxiety. Please don't worry in silence. If you are struggling, reach out to us. Our team cares deeply about supporting our customers, and we want to help however we can.
FAQs
The price cap is set by Ofgem, the energy regulator. Despite the name, it does not limit your total bill. It actually puts a cap on:
the maximum amount a supplier can charge you for each unit of gas and electricity you use
the daily standing charge (the fixed cost to connect your home to the grid).
Think of it like this: if there were a price cap for milk, it would limit the cost of each bottle, but if you bought more bottles, you’d still pay more. Read more on Ofgem's website.
You can normally change tariffs on your online account.
Log in to your Octopus account
Click 'Change my tariff': it's one of the first options under your account balance.
There, you can compare your energy costs on your current tariff to our other available tariffs.
If you see an option you like, you'll be able to switch to it yourself online.
What if I can't see the option to move tariff?
You'll be able to see this option if you're on a variable tariff (like Flexible Octopus), or if you're on a fixed tariff and within 45 days of the end of your contract. If you have any questions or can't see the option, contact us for help.
The energy price cap changes every three months (four times a year). The upcoming dates you need to know are:
July 1st 2026: When the new rates take effect.
October 1st 2026: The next quarterly rate change.
Ofgem announces the new rates about five weeks before they kick in, giving you time to prepare or look for a fixed deal.
If you’re on a fixed smart tariff, nothing changes. If you’re on a variable version, we expect to increase your prices when the cap comes into effect.
Yes. In April, the price cap dropped by £117, mostly driven by the government removing or shifting around the cost of green levies.
Those charges haven’t been added back on, but the price is rising for different reasons, mostly linked to wholesale prices rising thanks to geopolitical tensions.
The price cap doesn’t affect export rates, so we have no plans to change them. Just keep selling us those beams!
Published on 26th May 2026 by:
Nicki Slater-Arnold
Writer