For businesses: what does the Middle East conflict mean for my energy prices? (summer 2026)

Why is this impacting energy prices?

The conflict in the Middle East has sharply reduced global availability of oil and gas. Normally, about 20% of the world’s supply passes through waterways in the region. So, millions of barrels have been stopped from entering the global supply chain. This means oil and gas prices have gone up.

Gas still plays a decisive role in the UK grid. It generates electricity in a way that can be turned on or off in line with demand. So, it's used to balance grid energy levels.

Because of this dependence, gas price increases mean overall electricity costs go up. Even power from green sources feels the effects.

August 2026 update:

The Strait of Hormuz being closed is still pushing costs up. Gas tankers can’t get through, so the global supply of energy is way down.

There’s also the extreme weather. In the UK and across Europe, it’s been really hot - as you’ve probably noticed. This has meant demand for power going up, as people turn on their air con to stay cool.

Lots of European nuclear power plants have been turned off too. This made the amount of energy available even lower.

So, all in all, supply has stayed low but demand has gone up. This combination has made prices rise for everyone.

How will changing prices affect my business?

This depends on the type of tariff you’re on at the moment.

I’m on a fixed tariff

Your prices aren’t changing. They’ll stay the same for the length of your contract.

I’m on a fixed tariff that’s ending soon

You’re free to choose a new contract when you're ready. When you do, we’ll offer you the best rates available at that time.

These are likely to be higher than before the crisis began. Costs have been changing a lot since then.

By fixing a new contract, you can choose to lock prices in long-term. This would protect you from any more surges. But if prices fall again, you wouldn't feel the benefit of the decreases.

I’m on a flexible tariff

We regularly review our flexible rates to make sure they reflect the wholesale cost of energy. Since the crisis began, we've had to increase these a couple of times.

We’ll always give you plenty of notice before we make any changes like this.

You're also free to choose a new fixed contract at any time.

What is Octopus doing to protect businesses’ energy prices?

We’re not changing fixed prices mid-contract

With Octopus, your rates are your rates. We never change them partway through your term.

We’re always working to keep your prices fair

Our 6 pricing principles make sure of it, even when wholesale costs rise.

We’re giving you access to a smart tool to help avoid the worst of the current rates

Shape Shifters makes your electricity prices lower outside of the 4-7pm peak. For 21 hours each day, your prices will be cheaper than on standard tariffs.