Energy price cap predictions

Ofgem's Energy Price Cap changes every few months and it can be tricky to figure out how it’ll affect your bills. To help, we’ve created a yearly forecast designed to put your mind at ease and take the guesswork out of managing your energy.

Here's what we'll cover:

Price cap predictions

This is our prediction based on industry data and Ofgem's price cap calculation for a typical household: 11,500 kWh of gas and 2,700 kWh of electricity a year paid by Direct Debit. Last updated: February 2025

Time Period Average annual UK energy bill on price cap rates Change Price confidence
January 1st - March 31st 2025 £1,738 +£21 Confident
April 1st - June 30th 2025 £1,803 +£65 Fairly confident
July 1st - September 30th 2025 £1,809 +£6 Uncertain
October 1st - December 31st 2025 £1,807 -£2 Low confidence
January 1st - March 31st 2026 £1,816 +£9 Very low confidence

What this means for you

The price cap only applies to those on a flexible tariff (or variable tariff). Given the predicted trends, it could be worth considering our fixed tariffs, which are currently offering our cheapest rates.

Last updated February 2025

How to switch tariffs:

  1. Log in to your Octopus account
  2. Click 'Change my tariff': one of the options under your account balance. You'll have the option if you're on a variable tariff or a fixed tariff that's about to end.
  3. If you see a deal you like, you'll be able to switch.

Flexible vs Fixed tariffs

The price cap follows the cost of energy, which changes based on things like supply and demand, the weather, and global events – that’s why it goes up and down. If you’re on a flexible tariff (also known as a variable tariff), your prices are linked to the price cap and move with the market to reflect the actual cost of energy. Our Flexible tariff has always been below the price cap, so you’ll know you’re getting great value.

However, some people prefer fixed rates for peace of mind. If you're on a fixed tariff, your energy price stays the same for a set time – and right now, these offer our cheapest rates. That doesn’t mean your bill will be the same each month – if you use more energy, you’ll pay more – but you won’t be hit with sudden price changes, giving you extra security.

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What is Ofgem's energy price cap?

The energy price cap is a limit on the price of energy that suppliers can charge per kilowatt hour. It’s decided by Ofgem and affects customers on variable tariffs (where energy prices change based on the wholesale cost of energy).

Keep in mind that Ofgem’s price cap sets the max amount suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity — not your final bill. The more you use, the more you’ll pay.

Good to know: Octopus is the only large supplier to have never charged the full price cap!

Read about January's price cap change
Graph showing a persons balance as it chances throughout the year.

Check out our balance forecast tool

Map out your energy balance over the next year to see what will happen if you increase or decrease your Direct Debit. Test out different payment amounts, decide what you're comfortable with, and see what your balance might look like in a year's time.

See your balance forecast
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Save by switching to a smart tariff

Smart tariffs are a game-changer if you’ve got smart home tech like solar panels, a heat pump, or an EV – or if you’re ready to play a more active role in managing your energy use.
With tariffs like Agile and Tracker, customers get access to daily or half-hourly energy prices, so when wholesale electricity prices drop, so do your bills. As these tariffs are impacted by market volatility, they're best suited to people who can shift their energy use to avoid pricey peaks, often by using smart home tech like solar and batteries.

Explore our smart tariffs
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Get support if you're struggling

Octo Assist is a £30 million customer help fund and a collection of support schemes designed to help customers who need it most keep on top of their energy, and keep warm without worrying. The kind of support we offer ranges from free electric blankets and Winter Fuel payments, to standing charge waivers for those who are eligible. We even loan out thermal cameras to help more customers save heat in their homes — just one of the many ways we're helping people become more energy efficient.

Find support with Octo Assist

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