What does the war in the Middle East mean for UK energy prices? | March 2026

Our founder Greg breaks it all down in less than 5 minutes:

Why are global gas prices going up?

Energy prices are spiking right now because developments in the Middle East have sharply reduced global supply. The main driver is strikes launched by Israel and the US on Iran, which has effectively turned the Strait of Hormuz into a no-go zone. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas usually passes through this waterway, so millions of barrels have been barred from entering the global supply chain.

The crisis intensified on March 2 when QatarEnergy, one of the world’s biggest exporters, halted liquid natural gas (LNG) production at its two main facilities. On March 4, Qatar officially declared force majeure — a legal "act of God" clause that allows them to cancel gas deliveries without penalty due to uncontrollable circumstances like war.

What’s going to happen with my energy tariff?

If you’re on our variable tariff, Flexible Octopus, the earliest you’d see the recent market spikes impact your bills is July.

Your prices are protected by the energy price cap, which has already been set for April-June (a ~£117 reduction for the average home vs January prices thanks to the government’s levy cut). If these wholesale market increases stick around, you’d first see their impact on the price cap for July-September.

If you’re on a fixed tariff, your rates are locked in til your contract ends. When it’s time to renew, we’ll show you our best prices available at the time, which change regularly based on the market.

Will tariff prices go up longer term?

Our latest fixed prices have already gone up about £200 in the last few days (as of 8pm 4/3/26). It’s impossible to predict the future: they could go up more, or they could come down – it largely depends on what happens in the Middle East.

One bit of good news: from April 1st, the government are cutting some levies from your energy bills – around £130 cost saving for a typical home – which helps to counteract the impact of higher wholesale prices.

So, should I fix my prices?

None of us have a crystal ball that shows how long this conflict will last, so we can’t know for sure what’s best.

If you’re on a fixed tariff with several months left to go, then it might be best to stay on that, as otherwise you’ll be paying more in the short term. Check your tariff (scroll down til you see your tariff and meter info).

If you’re on Flexible Octopus, or nearing the end of a fixed tariff, and feeling uncertain about ongoing conflict in the Middle East, you may be weighing up your options.

If you need certainty about your energy bills for the next year, we're still offering fixed tariffs at the moment. They're more expensive than they were a few weeks ago, but if you just can't risk future rises in July or over Winter, they could be a good choice.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that our latest tariffs include exit fees, so you’d want to consider whether you might need to switch again later on down the line.

In most cases you can change your tariff online, and if not, email hello@octopus.energy and we'll help.

Why do some of our tariffs have exit fees?

You’ll be able to fix online if you’re on Flexible Octopus or you’re within 49 days of the end of your fix. If you can’t see the option to fix online, you can chat to our team instead – email hello@octopus.energy.

I’m on Octopus Tracker or Agile Octopus – should I move to a standard tariff right now?

That's genuinely your decision and we'd never push you either way. What the data shows is that with these dynamic, wholesale-based tariffs, you may pay more than standard tariff customers in the short term, but often these spikes don't erase long-term gains.

If you'd like security and stability during this turbulence, you're free to fix now or move to Flexible Octopus, our price cap protected tariff – read more about those options above.

Whatever you decide, we're here to help.

What would it actually take for the UK to be 'energy secure'?

So what's the solution?
There's no single fix, but there's a clear direction:

Reduce how much gas we need. More wind, solar and heat pumps gets us closer to self-sufficiency and less exposed to global shocks. The technology is ready and getting cheaper every year.

Reform our electricity markets so that cheap renewable power actually brings bills down. Right now, even green electricity is priced according to gas costs, and because the grid can’t always move power from where it’s generated to where it’s needed, we actually pay wind farms to turn off and gas plants to replace them. That wasted wind cost nearly £1.5 billion last year alone. Effectively, it’s a market design problem, not an energy problem, and it's solvable.

Use domestic North Sea gas while we still need it, rather than importing it from regions vulnerable to conflict. This isn’t a silver bullet, and it won't bring prices down overnight, but it makes more sense than shipping gas from the other side of the world.

Get on with nuclear, but do it efficiently. New plants are at least a decade away and government funding needs to be carefully managed. It's a long-term piece of the puzzle, not a short-term fix.

What about fracking?
We don’t think fracking is a meaningful solution for the UK. Our geology is denser and less productive than the US, and any extraction wouldn't make a significant contribution to our gas demand. And beyond the practicalities, the environmental case against it is well documented — the risks to local water supplies, soil and communities are very real concerns. It's not a road we'd want to go down even if the economics stacked up.

So when does this get better?
The technology is there. Renewables are cheaper than gas. Batteries cost a tenth of what they did ten years ago. The barrier now is market reform and political will. We can't control what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, but we can control how exposed we are when it does.

That's what “energy security” actually means.

What is Octopus actually doing about this — are you just talking about it?
We're one of Europe's largest renewable energy investors, with 4.9 GW of wind and solar projects worth £7 billion globally and £2 billion committed to new UK clean energy by 2030. We manufacture our own Cosy heat pump to make green heating affordable, and we've already built the UK's first zero-bills community — 113 homes in Essex with solar, heat pumps and a shared battery, with no energy bills guaranteed for ten years.

We’re also pushing hard for the market reforms that would actually fix this — publicly campaigning for zonal pricing, which would save consumers at least £2 billion a year and break the link between gas and electricity prices, so global crises stop hitting British households so hard.

We already know gas isn't the long-term answer. Everything we build points in the other direction.