What does the Iran war mean for UK energy prices? | March 2026

Our founder Greg breaks it all down in less than 5 minutes:

Why are global gas prices going up?

Energy prices are spiking right now because developments in the Middle East have sharply reduced global supply. The main driver is strikes launched by Israel and the US on Iran, which has effectively turned the Strait of Hormuz into a no-go zone. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas usually passes through this waterway, so millions of barrels have been barred from entering the global supply chain.

The crisis intensified on March 2 when QatarEnergy, one of the world’s biggest exporters, halted liquid natural gas (LNG) production at its two main facilities. On March 4, Qatar officially declared force majeure — a legal "act of God" clause that allows them to cancel gas deliveries without penalty due to uncontrollable circumstances like war.

What’s going to happen with my energy tariff?

If you’re on our variable tariff, Flexible Octopus, the earliest you’d see the recent market spikes impact your bills is July.

Your prices are protected by the energy price cap, which has already been set for April-June (a ~£117 reduction for the average home vs January prices thanks to the government’s levy cut). If these wholesale market increases stick around, you’d first see their impact on the price cap for July-September.

If you’re on a fixed tariff, your rates are locked in til your contract ends. When it’s time to renew, we’ll show you our best prices available at the time, which change regularly based on the market.

Will tariff prices go up longer term?

Our latest fixed prices have already gone up about £200 in the last few days (as of 8pm 4/3/26). It’s impossible to predict the future: they could go up more, or they could come down – it largely depends on what happens in the Middle East.

One bit of good news: from April 1st, the government are cutting some levies from your energy bills – around £130 cost saving for a typical home – which helps to counteract the impact of higher wholesale prices.

So, should I fix my prices?

None of us have a crystal ball that shows how long this conflict will last, so we can’t know for sure what’s best.

If you’re on a fixed tariff with several months left to go, then it might be best to stay on that, as otherwise you’ll be paying more in the short term. Check your tariff (scroll down til you see your tariff and meter info).

If you’re on Flexible Octopus, or near the end of your fixed tariff and you’re worried about lasting conflict in the Middle East, fixing for 12 months means you’ll be paying around the same as the energy price cap throughout 2025 – so it may not be a bad deal to protect against future increases.

Bear in mind that our latest tariffs do have exit fees, so that’s something to consider carefully if you might need to move tariffs within the next 12 months. Why do some of our tariffs have exit fees?

You’ll be able to fix online if you’re on Flexible Octopus or you’re within 49 days of the end of your fix. If you can’t see the option to fix online, you can chat to our team instead – email hello@octopus.energy.

I’m on Octopus Tracker or Agile Octopus – should I move to a standard tariff right now?

That's genuinely your decision and we'd never push you either way. What the data shows is that with these dynamic, wholesale-based tariffs, you may pay more than standard tariff customers in the short term, but often these spikes don't erase long-term gains.

If you'd like security and stability during this turbulence, you're free to fix now or move to Flexible Octopus, our price cap protected tariff – read more about those options above.

Whatever you decide, we're here to help.